Центр Кургиняна

The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly analyses events in the Middle East and the Balkans. IFIMES has prepared an analysis of the current political situation in Macedonia where the pre-election campaign has started for the general elections which are to be held on 5 July 2006. The most relevant and interesting sections from the comprehensive analysis are given below.

MACEDONIA:

IS ASSASSINATION OF ARBËN XHAFERI BEING PREPARED?

The parliamentary elections in Macedonia are to be held on 5 July 2006. A total of 1,741,449 citizens are going to be eligible to vote. Taking part are 33 political parties or coalitions and 2 independent lists. 2,700 candidates organised in 135 lists spread across 6 constituencies are to compete according the proportional system for the entrance into the Macedonian Parliament (Sobranie) with 120 seats. The leading parties at the forthcoming elections are: VMRO-DPMNE (the opposition and conservative party), SDSM (the ruling social-democratic party), DPA (the opposition Albanian party), DUI (the ruling Albanian party), NSDP (new social-democrats), VMRO-NP (nationalist right-wing party), DOM (new party of the political centre), etc. In addition to the main parties, there is a good chance for the National Party of Macedonia (ZNPM) to enter the parliament. The political parties of minorities: Turks, the Roma, Bosnians, Serbs and others will probably have their representatives in the Macedonian Parliament. The elections will be monitored by approximately 6,000 domestic and foreign observers.

FORMER YUGOSLAV COMMUNISTS STILL IN POWER

The national structure of the population in Macedonia is a political factor which is impossible to ignore (unofficially 1/3 of the population are ethnic Albanians). This fact gives rise to two groups of parties: Macedonian people's group of parties and the Albanian people's group of parties. Problems in the Macedonian society and state have not been created through the proclamation of independence on 8 September 1991. Namely, since 1945, the communist regime in Macedonia has never tackled the resolution of (inter)ethnic issues, rather solving these issues was usually "prolonged" or "swept under the carpet". The continuity of such policy was also maintained in 1991 when the when Macedonian Government unanimously proclaimed new state symbols regarding the state and the minorities without the participation or consent of the second largest ethnic community – the Albanians.

According to analysts of the IFMES International Institute, the ruling structure in Macedonia is a mere recurrence of the former Yugoslav communists (Macedonian and Albanian) personalised in parties of the ruling coalition of the SDSM and DUI. The parties in power, SDSM & DUI, are naively hoping that the citizens will simply forget the issue of the resolution of the national question if a certain degree of economic stability, growth and prosperity is attained. The communists have not managed to resolve this beginning with 1945 so the probability that the current ruling political coalition (SDSM and DUI) would resolve that open national question in Macedonia is rather bleak and improbable since according to opinions of IFIMES analysts, they do not represent the "authentic" political parties of Macedonian and Albanian people.

The IFIMES International Institute considers that such an approach by SDSM and DUI ("turning a blind eye" to the national question) is a wrong one and one that leads Macedonia into a constant political crisis. The approach, which maintains that the achievement of a certain degree of economic stability, growth and prosperity automatically solves the national question, is a return of Macedonia into the times of the rigid communist regime, and not a preparation of the state for the entry into EU and NATO.

IS DUI A PARTY OF CRIMINALS AND WAR PROFITEERS?

The frequent incidents caused mainly by DUI have led the IFIMES experts to analyse whether the current Albanian ruling party (DUI) is a party of criminals and war profiteers? Has DUI, through its participation in the Government, implemented the Ohrid Agreement signed on 13 August 2001 and which brought a whole line of improvements for ethnic Albanians?

Through analysing the current DUI participation in the ruling coalition, we can assess that the legalisation of the Tetovo University is the only DUI success, although this particular University already presented a reality, which had to be accepted and made legal.

The employment of Albanians in public services to a level of 25 % is nothing more than ink on paper. The usage of the Albanian language in areas where, according to the last population census, the population is made up of 20 % of Albanians opened the question of double standards. It is paradoxical that Albanians have to know the Macedonian language while at the same time the Macedonians are bound by nothing to know Albanian.

The law on amnesty concerning former insurgents was adopted under the pressure of the international community, and not DUI.

The IFIMES International Institute believes that the ruling DUI party has not done enough on the issue of pressing for constitutional reforms, which would enable the affirmation of Albanians and the improvement of their position. To this we can add the unresolved issue of over 150,000 Albanians, whom the Macedonian Government refuses to enter into the register of its citizens. This is why we had cases in which individuals, while waiting to become Macedonian citizens, in the meantime became citizens of Germany and other EU countries.

THE LIQUIDATION OF XHAFERI AND CRIMINALISATION OF THAÇI

The interconnectedness of political elites and secret services in Macedonia is a publicly known fact. In this light, we have an example where the Director of the Macedonian intelligence service, Mr. Lazar Kitanovski, submitted his resignation during the election campaign (16 June 2006) and announces his candidacy on the list of the ruling SDSM. The ruling parties (SDSM and DUI) often do not choose the means in order to remain in power. The numerous incidents are not mere coincidences but seem more like well-organised and planned in the ruling structures, whose aim is to show the current opposition as a factor of instability and thus warn the domestic and international public that the arrival of the current opposition into power would lead to further destabilisation of the country.

DUI represents the recurrence of the militarised political option that arose from the previous war (2001) in Macedonia along with former Yugoslav communists (Albanians), who have been outlived by the Macedonian political reality. This is why the DUI party engaged the former high-ranking Albanian Yugoslav National Army (JNA) officer, Gëzim Ostreni, to run as candidate in the previous presidential elections in Macedonia. Macedonia needs new people, not worn out politicians.... The DUI obviously did not know how to run a country in peacetime conditions. The proof of this comes from the Ohrid Agreement provisions, the implementation of which has generally been of a cosmetic nature. According to the Transparency International assessment, Macedonia is at the very top in terms of corruption – a high 103rd place out of 159 countries (October 2005) and the responsibility for that must also be born by the current Government. The loss of power would probably entail the commencement of criminal and corruption procedures, of which the current coalition is being accused.

The IFIMES International Institute expresses its grave concern regarding the support that the EU is affording to the DUI party in the upcoming elections marking it as another wrong move of the EU in Macedonia, one which could contribute to further destabilisation of that state.

The IFIMES International Institute considers that the greatest responsibility for the pre-election incidents and armed conflicts should be assumed by the Ministry of Interior Affairs, the police and the public prosecution office, all of which are under complete control of the ruling coalition, due to their utter inefficiency.

The IFIMES International Institute has reliable knowledge that an assassination is being prepared on DPA leader, Arbën Xhaferi, in the greatest of secrecy? At the same time, an extremely tough campaign is being led by criminal circles aimed at criminalising and discrediting Menduh Thaçi, the Vice President of DPA. The aim of Xhaferi's liquidation and Thaçi's criminalisation is to create a space enabling a prolonged domination in the Albanian electoral body while simultaneously presenting the current opposition as criminal in the eyes of the public. If physical liquidation of Xhaferi materialises, the greatest responsibility will fall upon the current administration (SDSM and DUI), who have not provided any security for political leaders and participants of the election process.

Data on the sample:
. The sample: random, three-stage
. Size of the sample: 317 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age-Albanian’s)
. Methodology: telephone survey
. Period: June 26 to 28, 2006
. Degree of reliability: 95%
. Control: per 10% specimens
. Standard deviation: +/- 3
. Territory:1. Election constituency – Macedonia

FOR WHICH OF THE ALBANIAN CANDIDATES IN CONSTITUENCY 1 WOULD YOU VOTE AT THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS TO BE HELD ON 5 JULY 2006?

- MENDUH THAÇI 56,30 %

- RAFIZ ALITI 26,10 %

- ZENUN FEJZULA 8,50 %

- AZAM DAUTI 4,10 %

- MILAIM LIMANI 3,20 %

- RIDVAN BAJRAMI 1,80 %

Data on the sample:
. The sample: random, three-stage
. Size of the sample: 1.411 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age)
. Methodology: telephone survey
. Period: June 26 to 28, 2006
. Degree of reliability: 95%
. Control: per 10% specimens
. Standard deviation: +/- 3
. Territory: Macedonia

WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR IF THE ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY IN MACEDONIA?

- VMRO-DPMNE 25,90 %

- SDSM 17,10 %

- DUI 17,20 %

- DPA 17,90 %

- NSDP 7,80 %

- VMRO-NP 6,20 %

- DOM 2,20 %

- ZNPM 1,10 %

- OTHER 4,60 %

WILL YOU TAKE PART AT THE FORTHCOMING GENERAL ELECTIONS ON 5 JULY 2006?

- YES 57,40 %

- NO 26,10 %

- I DON'T KNOW 16,50 %

Analysing the previous pre-election programmes of SDSM and DUI, the IFIMES International Institute assesses that the current Government, in the course of its four year mandate, did not fulfil even a half of its pre-election programmes.

It is essential that election victors, VMRO-DPMNE and DPA, along with EU assistance, find the most suitable solution for Macedonia through an appropriate constitutional model, i.e. the constitutional key which would guarantee that the distribution of all key positions in the country gets adjusted to the proportional structure of the population. We expect that after the election, VMRO-DPMNE will offer Albanians and other non-Macedonians a greater number of responsible functions in the Macedonian state as a sign of good will, and through that initialises the process of finding the most appropriate constitutional model, which would preclude segregation of its citizens on ethnic or other grounds.

The IFIMES International Institute believes that the stability of Macedonia requires a prompt resolution of the outstanding issue presented by the autocephaly of the Macedonian Orthodox Church (MPC), which is nowhere to be seen due to the strong pressure by the Greek Orthodox Church (GPC) exerted on the present parent Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC) not to allow the recognition of autocephaly to MCP.

Ljubljana, June 30, 2006

International Institute for Middle-East

and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) – Ljubljana

Director: Bakhtyar Aljaf