The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly analyses events in the Middle East and the Balkans. On the occasion of the announced local elections in Slovenia which are to take place on 22 October 2006 IFIMES has prepared an analysis of the current pre-election situation. The most relevant and interesting sections from the comprehensive analysis are given below.

SLOVENIA AND THE LOCAL ELECTIONS:

ESTABLISHMENT OF REGIONS AND A TEST FOR JANSA'S GOVERNMENT

In view of the forthcoming local elections in Slovenia which are to take place on 22 October 2006 the IFIMES International Institute has prepared an analysis of the current political events. At the general elections the voters will elect 3,382 members of municipal/city councils and 210 mayor in 210 municipalities as well as members of councils of city districts in certain city municipalities, urban and rural communities. In Slovenia 11 cities have the status of city municipality (Ljubljana, Maribor, Koper, Novo Mesto, Velenje, Murska Sobota, Nova Gorica, Slovenj Gradec, Celje, Kranj and Ptuj). For the first time elections will be held in additional 17 municipalities which were established in March this year when the Slovenian parliament adopted the decision on the establishment of new municipalities.

According to the data from March 2006 Slovenia has 2,004,394 inhabitants of which 1,663,012 have the right to vote. The average gross wage in Slovenia amounts to EUR 1,194.78 (SIT 286,316.00) according to the data from May 2006.

It is characteristic of the local elections in Slovenia that one representative of the Romany community is elected in each of the 19 municipalities, although this rule should apply to 20 municipalities since the municipality of Grosuplje does not respect the decision of the Constitutional Court and the Local Self-Government Act which states the names of 20 municipalities with the autochthon Romany community. The representatives of the Italian and Hungarian minority vote their mandatory members in municipal/city councils in municipalities where they are more significantly represented in the structure of the population.

THE ATTITUDE OF POLITICAL FORCES IN THE SLOVENIAN PARLIAMENT

The last parliamentary elections in Slovenia were held on 3 October 2004. There are 90 deputies in the National Assembly (Parliament) of the Republic of Slovenia: SDS (Slovenian Democratic Party) 29, LDS (Liberal Democracy of Slovenia) 23, SD (Social Democrats) 10, NSi (New Slovenia) 9, SLS (Slovene People's Party) 7, SNS (Slovene National Party) 6, DeSUS (Democratic Party of Pensioners) 4, one representative of the Italian and one representative of the Hungarian national minority.

The governing coalition is composed of SDS, NSi, SLS and DeSUS.

REGIONALISATION – ESTABLISHMENT OF REGIONS

Administratively, the Republic of Slovenia is organised as a state with central authorities and municipal or city/town levels of power. The issue of regionalisation has been present in the Slovenian politics for quite some time. There are several reasons calling for the formation of regions or districts. The necessity of regionalisation also arises from the European definition of the "Europe of regions" and Slovenia's problems related to drawing from the appropriate EU funds allocated for the European regions.

On 27 June the Slovenian parliament passed the constitutional act amending Articles 121, 140 and 143 of the Constitution (Official Gazette of the Republic of Slovenia, No. 68/06). Those articles are the basis for adopting the laws which are presently in the government procedure and should be adopted by the end of his year. The Establishment of Regions Act is to be adopted early in 2007 and the regions are to be established in 2008. Thus the regional elections would be held together with the parliamentary elections in 2008. The regional bodies which would start to operate on 1 January 2009 would thus be: the regional council, president of the region and various regional bodies (the president of the region's committee, the conference of municipalities as the advisory committee of the council, the president and others). The professional circles propose 6 to 8 regions while the official politics presented (Mr. Jana at XIII Days of Slovenian Administration – Portoro., 21. September 2006) a proposal for 14 regions. From judging the whole situation it will be probably the political proposal which will be adopted. The 12 statistical regions or the 14 development regions will probably serve as the territorial framework for the establishment of regions as the new administrative and territorial structure in Slovenia.

This year the question of cohesion regions was finally resolved by dividing Slovenia into two cohesion regions. It took several years for the parliament to adopt the decision on such division which should significantly facilitate the drawing from the European funds. However, the cohesion regions still have not been confirmed by the European Union.

According to the new Article 143 the regions are founded by the state and not by the municipalities which participate (i.e. must be ensured participation) in this process. It is the newly elected local authorities which will participate in the establishment of regions. It is estimated that this task will be rather complex and at the same time significant for further development of the Slovenian "village".

INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES/ LISTS AND VARIOUS LOCAL COALITIONS

At the local level various coalitions are being formed, differing from the coalitions at the national level. Local interests prevail over the ideological ones. This shows that when voting the mayor in Slovenia his or her personal characteristics are attributed greatest importance while the party affiliation is only of secondary importance. According to various public opinion polls the mayors who have proven to bee successful during their term of office are usually re-elected without many difficulties. Practice has shown that the mayors who efficiently resolve local issues are approved of by the voters regardless of their party affiliation.

A large number of independent candidates and independent lists is a characteristic of local elections in Slovenia. This trend has been increasing since the first local elections in Slovenia and has become very distinct this year. This above all points to the fact that the voting body is becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the alternatives and programmes offered by the established political parties. If this trend continues, as seems to be the case for the time being, it will represent an important challenge for the parties who will have to focus their activities on the preparation of their programmes at the local level. Moreover, political parties enter into various coalitions at the local level which differ from those formed at the national level. Obviously it is much more easy to form coalitions at the local level which allows far more political pragmatism and guarantees the resolving of current issues. The social context of small towns and small municipalities apparently significantly determines the efficiency of local political elites. Until now this has been an unnoticed message from the local elections to the politics at the national level.

In large cities it is more difficult for those rules to function and be noticed. Thus, in the city municipality of Ljubljana 16 candidates are competing for the position of the mayor, of which only one is a woman. In Maribor there are 14 candidates of which only two are women. In large cities there is also a much stronger concentration of professional politicians, which creates a different political, social and pragmatic picture not as favourable to simple pragmatic solutions as in small towns.

The most interesting fight for the position of the mayor will be fought in the city municipality of Ljubljana. According to some estimations the function of the mayor of the capital of Slovenia can be compared with the ministerial position. The mayor of the capital regularly hosts important political personae coming to Slovenia. In Ljubljana there is by far stronger concentration of capital in the funds, the holding and public utility services which creates a fierce fight for winning the positions in the division of power.

At the forthcoming local elections the main fight will be fought between SDS and LDS, although lately the Social Democrats have been actively striving to become the leaders of the political left in Slovenia. The political scene has thus been divided into two political blocks: SDS – the political right and SD – the political left.

The local elections will show whether the formerly leading LDS has, after the defeat at the 2004 parliamentary elections, managed to consolidate its powers led by the current LDS President Jelko Kacin who is at the same time one of Slovenia's representatives in the European Parliament.

The forthcoming local elections will be the first such elections after the political power was changed at the 2004 parliamentary elections when after more than a decade the former opposition achieved a turnabout in the government. The results will show whether the governing coalition has managed to continue this trend and what are the relations between its two major parties (SDS and NSi) on one side and between the two major opposition parties (LDS and SD) on the other side. The relative success of the Social Democrats will certainly affect the ambitions of its President Borut Pahor, one of Slovenia's representatives in the European Parliament, to enter the campaign for the president of the state next year. As far as the interpretation of the results of local elections is concerned it should be stressed that this is a very flexible concept. Thus the SLS is, due to the large number of small municipalities, the party with the most mayors of municipalities. The results of local elections are enough non-transparent to enable each party to interpret them favourably for itself. According to the estimations of the IFIMES International Institute it is due to the above facts that this year's campaign is very media-intensive, spectacular and with so many participants.

The IFIMES International Institute is of the opinion that the forthcoming local elections will be the first serious test for Prime Minister Jana's government which has, during the first two years of its term of office, managed to create a stable economic environment culminating in the introduction of Euro in Slovenia on 1 January 2007 and favourable economic indicators according to which Slovenia is placed among the 30 most developed countries in the world.

Ljubljana, 19 October 2006

Internationale Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) – Ljubljana

Director: Bakhtyar Aljaf