The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly analyses events in the Middle East and the Balkans. On the occasion of the announced parliamentary elections in the Republic of Croatia which are to take place on 25 November 2007 IFIMES has prepared an analysis of the current pre-election situation. The most relevant and interesting sections from the comprehensive analysis are given below.

CROATIA:

SANADER - KOŠTUNICA SECRET AGREEMENT?

PRESIDENT MESIĆ - CROATIA'S GOOD SIDE

On the occasion of the 6th parliamentary elections in the Republic of Croatia since the country proclaimed its independence, which are to be held on 25 November 2007, IFIMES has prepared an analysis of the current pre-election situation. MPs are elected directly by secret ballot according to the proportional system whereby each party or candidate is entitled to the number of parliamentary mandates proportional to the number of votes obtained. There is a 5% threshold. A total of 140 MPs are elected to the Parliament from 10 constituencies making up the territory of the Republic of Croatia, each constituency providing 14 MPs. The number of voters by constituencies may not differ by more than + - 5%. The number of MPs to be voted by the voters not residing in the Republic of Croatia is determined by dividing the total number of valid votes in the 10 constituencies in the Republic of Croatia with 140, i.e. the total number of MPs voted in those constituencies. The result (quotient) is used to divide the number of valid votes in the special constituency. If the result is not an integer it is rounded off to the nearest integer (to the higher number if the result is above 0,5 and to the lower number if it is below 0,5 ).

There will be a total of 3.586 candidates competing at the elections, of which 2.515 (70,13%) men and 1.071 (29,87%) women. The Republic of Croatia has somewhat more than 4,4 million inhabitants of which about 3,5 million are entitled to vote, not taking into account the Diaspora with about 400 thousand voters most of who live in Bosnia and Herzegovina where they have the status of the constitutional nation but not of the national minority. The Diaspora will vote in 52 countries.

Elected in 2003 the current government is composed of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), which is the political successor to the late first President of the Republic of Croatia Franjo Tuđman. The present HDZ's leader and Prime Minister Ivo Sanader has not managed to transform HDZ into a modern conservative political party. In many aspects HDZ's activities are founded on anticommunist principles which are still burdened with the past. The anticommunist attitude is often based on sympathy for the Independent State of Croatia (NDH) – the quisling and fascistic formation established under the auspices of Germany and Italy during the Second World War.

The polarised political scene in Croatia, dominated by the leading right wing HDZ and the left oriented Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the opposition, is the main feature of the current pre-election campaign. The polarisation has actually turned into personal rivalry between Ivo Sanader (HDZ) and Zoran Milanović (SDP).

In this polarised country a special position has been assumed by the incumbent President Stjepan Mesić, who has been performing this function for the second term of office. With his activities he has significantly contributed to the "healing" of the Croatian political scene after the death of the controversial first President Franjo Tuđman who expressed his Croatian patriotism by stating on one occasion that he was proud that his wife was neither Jewish nor Serbian. Mesić truly is the President of all citizens of the Republic of Croatia and a deeply respected and distinguished politician in the region who has made an immensely positive contribution to the stabilisation of the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the region.

THE VOTERS WANT CHANGES

Research has shown that the voters of most parties are strongly motivated for a change in the power. This is apparently a favourable trend for SDP which is reflected in slight advantage of SDP over HDZ. Croatian People's Party (HNS), whose former member was President Mesić, has been gaining popularity and is currently at the third place according to public opinion polls. The governing structure will depend on the coalition, therefore the pre-election campaign is also marked with attempts to mobilise voters and attract future coalition partners. The neutral voters are mostly in favour of SDP.

The opposition parties succeeded in motivating the neutral voters to attend the elections and in creating the atmosphere favourable to a change. HDZ has not benefited from the support of the Roman Catholic Church and the football players. Religious education in schools, crucifixes in offices, blessings of public investments etc. legitimately raise doubts as to the separation of the state and the church. The secularism of modern Croatia has been jeopardised by the dominant position of the Roman Catholic Church over other religious communities. A lot of property was confiscated from the Jews in Zagreb and other private owners until 1945. However, unlike the Jews and other groups, the Roman Catholic Church has had almost all of its property returned. In his sermon Cardinal Josip Bozanić advised the citizens on how to vote at the forthcoming elections, calling them not to vote for the left oriented parties.

Sanader's electoral lists are dominated by the old names from HDZ such as Šeks, Jarnjak, Hebrang, Kosor, Kalmeta, Marina Matulović-Dropulić etc., who have obviously wearied the general public.

The Diaspora as the 11th constituency will vote in favour of HDZ, since Sanader and other HDZ leaders believe they won the elections at the moment when Milanović gave up the Diaspora and the SDP list which would be headed by the Mayor of Zagreb Milan Bandić and candidate for Prime Minister Ljubo Jurčić, both born in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Milanović decided to quit the list in order to win the sympathy of the citizens, bombing the voters with slogans telling them that the people in Croatia should decide on Croatia.

Sanader is using sophisticated Tuđman's methods. He has intimidated his closest collaborators and high members of his parties. He has fortified his own position and eliminated potential competitors from his party, frightening or bribing them, while some of them even ended in prison.

It is very difficult to base Milanović's accusations regarding Sanader's corruption on some written or electronic documents. If Sanader loses the elections Milanović will very probably start digging deep in the commercial, material and financial past of HDZ's leader.

Croatia's public debt currently amounts to EUR 35 billion and is expected to reach 86% to 87% of GDP by the end of the year, while the permitted ceiling is 80% of GDP. Nevertheless, Croatia will not be facing a financial crisis at least for the next few years, as long as it pays back its loans regularly and relies on the three main sources for covering the deficit: tourism, transfers from Croats living abroad and sale of immovable property. However, economists recall that tourism is a very vulnerable sector which can be negatively affected by the climatic or political circumstances, including the presence of terrorism in the region.

SANADER IS TARGETING THE RETIRED VOTERS

During the last week before the elections, about 463.000 pensioners entitled to compensation started to receive their next instalment of debt. Almost every second pensioner in the state will receive compensation, since it has been planned to pay out all instalments by the end of the week, i.e. until the elections. The government has provided 2,037 billion Croatian kunas from the recent sale of T-Hrvatski Telekom shares.

Thus, on the eve of the elections debt instalments will be paid out to the largest number of retired persons so far – 320,000 pensioners who opted for the fast model, i.e. the payment of one half of the compensation, will receive their payment in the last quarter of his year.

SANADER IS AVOIDING TV CONFRONTATION WITH MILANOVIĆ

Prime Minister Sanader has responded to Milanović's personal attacks against him in the best and most cunning way – by ignoring him. Despite Milanović's persistence there will be no television confrontation, which will be a new precedent in the history of democracy. Eventually, this will do most harm to Sanader himself since the general public logically wonders why Prime Minister wants to avoid the duel if he has nothing to hide.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker openly supported Sanader on the television. However, at the recent presidential election in Slovenia Angela Merkel supported Alojz Peterle whose campaign turned out to be a debacle after the victory of his opponent Danilo Türk. Elections are primarily Croatia's internal political issue.

By pushing out Ljubo Jurčić, Milanović took over the initiative during the pre-election campaign and became the most popular politician in Croatia according to public opinion polls.

Ljubo Jurčić, SDP's candidate for prime minister position, believes that higher wages, pensions and profits can only be achieved by increasing domestic production and not by selling national property and raising debts, which was the practice of HDZ 's government: "We can live better if we work more, and we are going to provide better jobs and higher wages to people. We should introduce tax on profit since taxes are now paid by those who earn minimum wages and not by those who earn millions".

The IFIMES International Institute is of the opinion that each vote will be critical at the upcoming parliamentary elections in Croatia due to the equal position of SDP and HDZ. The support of few minority parties as well as of the eight representatives of national minorities (of which three Serbian) may be crucial. In order to form the government over twenty mandates from other parties will be required. Why should not HDZ represent an attractive ally in the future? All the parties point to Sanader's overbearing behaviour, claiming that he disregards their demands and acts as an absolute ruler of Tuđman's style, which distances other parties from HDZ.

SANADER DECEIVED BOSNIAKS AND SLOVENES

When he gained power Sanader promised to re-incorporate Bosniaks and Slovenes in the Constitution of the Republic of Croatia, who were eliminated from the preamble to the Constitution in 1997, asking in return for the support from the representative of the Albanian, Bosnian, Montenegrin, Macedonian and Slovenian national minority Šemso Tanković. However, Sanader failed to fulfil his promise and thus deceived the Bosniak and Slovenian minority living in Croatia.

SANADER - KOŠTUNICA SECRET AGREEMENT?

Current events in the regions have proven that Croatia's Prime Minister and HDZ leader Ivo Sanader is a master of backstairs influence. Under his influence Croatia's government has assumed a very reserved position on the future independent status of Kosovo and only manifests its opinion when it can not avoid answering that question. It is not a coincidence that the relations between Croatia's government and Kosovo's provisional institutions have cooled down after Sanader gained authority. Are we talking about a secret agreement with the Serbian Prime Minister Koštunica who has promised to Sanader that in return for such "principled" position on Kosovo he would support the Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina in creating the third entity? On behalf of Koštunica that promise is being carried out by Milorad Dodik, the present Prime Minister of Republika Srpska.

Ljubljana, 21 November 2007

International Institute for Middle-East

and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) - Ljubljana

Director:

Bakhtyar Aljaf